00100	          SOME PROPOSITIONS FOR DEBATE ABOUT HUMAN ECOLOGY

00200	
00300		After reading much of the recent  ecological  literature  and
00400	making some calculations, I have come to hold the following views. At
00500	a later time, I hope to write up the reasons for holding them, but in
00600	the mean time I am willing to debate them orally.
00700	
00800		1.               The    world's    equilibrium    level    of
00900	<population>%times%<standard-of-living>  can  be  well   above   that
01000	required  to give the projected world population in the year 2000 the
01100	present U.S.  standard of living.   This is in disagreement with  the
01200	view that the population is already too high for the U.S. standard of
01300	living.   I do not assert how long  it  would  take  to  realize  the
01400	required  level  of  population  or  that the world population can be
01500	prevented from rising above the 6 billion or so referred to.
01600	
01700		2.  Our descendants will be  more  capable  than  we  are  in
01800	dealing  with  the physical world.  Just turning present science into
01900	technology will cause capability to grow at the present rate  for  at
02000	least  another  hundred  years.    A crisis whose effects will not be
02100	felt for at least two doubling times of capability for  dealing  with
02200	it  is not a crisis and expensive measures should be postponed unless
02300	there are also immediate benefits to dealing with the problem.
02400	
02500		3.    The  natural  resources  problem  is  very  complex  to
02600	understand  because  so  many  different  resources  are involved, no
02700	serious studies looking even 50 years ahead have been made,  and  the
02800	possibilities for recycling and substitution have not been studied. A
02900	major effort needs to be  made  to  understand  the  world  resources
03000	problem at least 50 years into the future.
03100	
03200		However,  energy,  iron,  aluminum  and non-energy carbon are
03300	clearly in reasonable shape.
03400	
03500		The food problem for up to 5 times the present population  is
03600	solvable, but synthetic food at least for animals may be required.
03700	
03800		4. The solid waste problem is not a crisis.  All the proposed
03900	solutions to mitigating nuisances will work.  In particular, there is
04000	enough  low  cost  land  for dumping so that present methods could be
04100	continued for 1000 years by which time our  descendants  will  regard
04200	any  ideas  we  might  have on the subject as of antiquarian interest
04300	only.   (Of course, there is a shortage of land where waste fill  can
04400	be  regarded  as a positive benefit considering the present desire to
04500	preserve salt marsh, mud flats, etc.)
04600	
04700		5.   The present political process going on with  respect  to
04800	air  and  water  pollution  will  succeed  in  solving  the presently
04900	recognized troubles by the methods now being pursued.  It is easy  to
05000	forget what progress has been made in securing safe water etc.
05100	
05200		6.    Mercury  in  food  is  bad  for  people.    The mercury
05300	contamination of the ocean turns out  to  be  natural  and  has  been
05400	contributing  to  human  ill  health  since time immemorial.  We will
05500	discover more such natural hazards and will work to eliminate them or
05600	mitigate  their  effects.   They can serve to calibrate the degree of
05700	alarm justified by similar artificial hazards such as DDT.
05800	
05900		7.  Doom-saying is a very effective way of  arousing  action,
06000	but it has the following disadvantages:
06100	
06200		a. It introduces conflicts which can be harmful in themselves
06300	and which give opportunities to power seekers.
06400	
06500		b.  Action concentrates on the most publicized  troubles  and
06600	not necessarily in the areas where action is most cost-effective.
06700	
06800		c.   Lack  of  intellectual  honesty  by scientists in giving
06900	unsound reasons for supporting  causes  they  believe  in  for  other
07000	reasons  or  support  for reasons of solidarity with political allies
07100	will make it difficult to get professional  advice  respected.    The
07200	SCEI  campaign  against  the  SST was on the intellectual level of an
07300	anti-fluoridation tract.  The current  drafts  of  the  "Enviromental
07400	Handbook"   are   not  as  bad,  but  are  still  not  intellectually
07500	respectable.
07600	
07700		d.   Doom-saying  drives  out  ideas  that  promise  to  make
07800	improvements  in  human  life  unless they can be phrased in terms of
07900	averting a disaster.  One of the consequences of this is the lack  of
08000	federal  support for basic research in civilian technology.   Support
08100	for military technology was to avert disaster.   The  present  crisis
08200	driven  political  activity  may also fail to support technology that
08300	merely promises to make life better.
08400	
08500		8.        There   are   both   technological   problems   and
08600	political-organizational  problems.   When there is more than one way
08700	of overcoming a difficulty, the technological "fix" is  usually  more
08800	reliable to implement.
08900	
09000		9.  After  reading  the  recent  environmental literature, my
09100	conclusions are that the view of world problems current in the 1960's
09200	in  scientific circles is essentially correct.  The main problems are
09300	too rapid population increase in the underdeveloped countries and too
09400	slow  economic  growth.   The  remedies are improved methods of birth
09500	control and their propagandization.  The developed  countries  should
09600	help  the  others  with  technology,  money, and investment.   Social
09700	servo-mechanisms exist that impel action when situations  deteriorate
09800	badly,  but  the  mechanisms that anticipate evils are inadequate and
09900	subject to a great deal of noise; consider the  fact  that  the  U.S.
10000	until recently considered its main danger to be military.
10100		10.  The U.S.   itself  probably  would  benefit  by  twofold
10200	increase  in  its production of goods though not uniformly throughout
10300	its industries.
10400	
10500		11.  The economic, technological,  and  resource  information
10600	necessary  to  determine  a  rational  policy  simply  has  not  been
10700	collected.
10800	
10900		12. There exist great opportunities for improving the quality
11000	of  our  lives and contributing to man's freedom to pursue happiness,
11100	but concentration on averting imaginary disasters has prevented  work
11200	on this.  It seems that improvements in our society come in the guise
11300	of averting disaster, but not all improvements can come this way.
11400	
11500	
11600		I  see  that this formulation of the views of a technological
11700	optimist has some defects, and I suspect that  people  are  going  to
11800	force me to modify them, but I'll let them stand for now.